January 12, 2021 – NPD Group – This year is likely to have some similarities to 2020, but may also be quite different for many industries. So, maybe 2019 is a better comparison to make, right? Not quite. In order to understand the flow of retail for 2021, we need to look at both of the preceding years. This approach will help retail plan more effectively and build more realistic expectations around challenging year-over-year comps in 2021.

E-commerce will sustain growth, to a degree.

In 2020, some industries saw a 40% to 50% lift in online sales over 2019. We can be fairly certain that e-commerce will sustain some of the market penetration it claimed in 2020, but it will retrench a bit. In 2021, those industries are likely to see growth closer to 20% over 2019. The consumer’s pent up demand for in-store shopping will most certainly drive traffic back to stores once the country re-opens and confidence in the safety of doing so returns. Combine this with the shipping delay and fulfillment challenges e-commerce has faced, particularly late in 2020, and the online channel will need to find ways to reinforce its value to the consumer in the evolving shopping environment of 2021.

Read more at NPD Group.