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What is the Rouse Retail Barometer? The Rouse Company realizes that the key elements to success in the ownership and management of retail centers are the rate of growth and level of sales of the centers' merchants. Understanding these sales trends, particularly in children's apparel, and their implications requires timely and accurate information--which the company has developed and which is summarized below in the Rouse Retail Barometer. Square Footage December 00 to
01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 92,200 -8.6 0.6 Southeast Region 99,106 -10.1 -3.6 Midwest Region 62,997 -12.0 -5.3 Southwest and West
Regions 30,296 -9.0 -2.8 Total 284,599 -9.8 -2.2 December Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Following the pattern of October and November and of specialty retailers nationwide, December sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers were down 4.8% for the month. For the full year of 2001, comparable space sales declined by 1.8% -- relatively strong performance in an environment of double-digit declines. The only merchandise category to post a gain for 2001 was non-comparable space, which was up 6.0% as a result of successful re-leasing to more productive merchants. In general, women's apparel and children's apparel performed relatively better, while men's and family apparel merchants reported weaker results. Even though normal winter weather seemed not to reach much of the eastern United States, the Northeast (up 1.0% for the year) and the Southeast (down 1.7% for the year) outperformed the Midwest (down 2.6% for the year), while the Southwest/West (down 5.8% for the year) was weakest. Many economists are forecasting the end of the recession early in 2002, and consumer sentiment surveys are increasingly positive. If these indicators are correct, merchants should begin reporting stronger numbers within the next few months. Square Footage November 00 to
01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 92,200 2.2 2.3 Southeast Region 99,106 -12.5 -2.4 Midwest Region 62,997 -10.1 -4.0 Southwest and West
Regions 30,296 -1.3 -1.7 Total 284,599 -4.8 -0.8 November Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers improved compared to September and October's declines, but still posted a November decrease of 4.4% for all comparable space. For the eleven months, comparable space sales are down 1.5% from the comparable period of 2000. While the women's accessories and specialty apparel category was strong, ahead by almost 10%, most other merchandise categories were weak. Home furnishings and electronics, however, bucked the trend, posting a solid 4.3% increase. Regionally, the Northeast fared best, almost flat for November, while the Southeast and Midwest posted declines of 4.4% and 4.6%, respectively. The Southwest/West continued its 2001 weak performance with a drop of 9.9% over November of 2000. Black Friday (the day after Thanksgiving) saw excellent traffic at most suburban centers, but the enthusiasm of consumers seemed to wane in the last week of the month. Expectations are that December sales will probably improve over November's performance, with a pick up anticipated around Christmas. Square Footage October 00 to
01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 92,200 -1.4 2.3 Southeast Region 102,390 -7.7 -1.7 Midwest Region 62,997 -5.8 -3.3 Southwest and West
Regions 30,296 -2.1 -1.7 Total 287,883 -4.2 -0.5 October Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Reflecting nationwide trends of specialty retailers, October sales of merchants in the Company's shopping centers were weak, down 6.7% from the same month in 2000. For the year to date, comparable space sales declined slightly, 0.9%, compared to the first ten months of last year. Customer traffic which had dropped post-September 11th, returned to more normal levels by the middle of October, particularly at the large suburban regional centers. Specialty marketplaces, however, which are generally located in downtowns and serving markets with larger tourist and visitor components, were still experiencing lower volumes of shoppers. All four regions of the country and virtually all merchandise categories recorded declines, but the unseasonably warm weather clearly was affecting apparel sales, notably coats and sweaters. The slowing economy and weak consumer confidence seem to indicate that the coming holiday season will likely be sluggish, but probably improved over September and October rates of decline. Square Footage September 00 to
01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 92,200 -9.5 2.9 Southeast Region 102,390 -10.8 -1.0 Midwest Region 62,997 -12.9 -3.0 Southwest and West
Regions 31,581 -7.9 -3.2 Total 289,168 -10.5 -0.2 September Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: As would be expected, in the wake of the tragic events of September 11th, sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers were down for the month. The properties were all closed by noon (EDT) on the 11th, and although all but South Street Seaport reopened the next day, much of America remained glued to television for several days. By the end of the month, traffic at the centers had returned to near normal levels, but September ended with sales from comparable space down by 9.4%, reducing the year to date gain for the nine months to .2%. The declines were pretty consistent across the board. All four regions were off, between 8.2% and 10.4%, and all merchandise categories were also down. As noted earlier, customer traffic had returned to pre-September 11th levels by early October and initial reports indicate that sales too had rebounded. Square Footage August 00 to
01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 98,155 9.7 5.2 Southeast Region 103,700 3.3 0.7 Midwest Region 62,997 -2.9 -1.1 Southwest and West
Regions 31,581 -11.3 -2.6 Total 296,433 2.3 1.8 August Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers were basically flat, ahead by .2% for August 2001, compared to a year ago. For the first eight months of 2001, comparable space sales were .6% ahead of 2000. Regionally, the Northeast produced the strongest results, up 4.5% for the month and 3.8% for the year to date. The Southeast (.4% and 1.0%) and the Midwest (-.02% and 0.1%) were consistent with the national average, while the Southwest/West trailed, with declines of 6.5% and 3.9%, respectively. The Southwest/West centers appear to have been more affected by high gasoline prices and new competition. Among merchandise categories, shoes did well for August and the year to date, while family/specialty apparel was weak. And, the non-comparable space continued to outperform due to successful re-leasing of space to more productive merchants. September sales results will clearly be negatively impacted by the tragic events of September 11, 2001. However, after the initial fall off, traffic at suburban regional retail centers has pretty much recovered to pre-September 11 levels. Square Footage July 00 to 01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 98,155 -1.3 4.4 Southeast Region 107,544 -0.6 0.4 Midwest Region 62,997 -3.9 -0.7 Southwest and West
Regions 32,581 5.9 0.1 Total 301,277 -3.8 2.6 July Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: In July, sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers were weak across the board. For the month, comparable property sales volumes declined by 4.1% dragging the gain for the year down to only .3%. All regions and virtually all merchandise categories recorded modest declines. Women's apparel, shoes, children's apparel and other GAFO (books, sporting goods, etc.) are performing relatively well, but after several strong years, jewelry is soft. Anecdotal evidence suggests that tax rebate checks and sales tax holidays in several states boosted back to school sales in August. The mood for the balance of the year appears cautious. The second half of 2000 was not particularly strong, so the comparisons should be somewhat easier than in the first half. Square Footage June 00 to 01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 102,463 0.6 5.4 Southeast Region 109,033 -4.9 3.1 Midwest Region 62,997 -8.0 0.4 Southwest and West
Regions 33,617 -9.6 0.1 Total 308,110 -3.8 2.6 June Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: June sales of merchants in Rouse's retail centers continued to track the results of the national specialty retailers. In June, comparable space sales declined by 2.7%, reducing the year to date gain for the first half of 2001 to 1.0%. All merchandise categories were weak, with the best performance coming in the non-comparable category (+4.0%) as a result of re-leasing to more successful tenants. Regionally, the Northeast (the largest region) continued to outperform, ahead by 1.2% for June and 4.1% for the six months. The Southwest/West had the weakest results, generally reflecting some new competition and weakening economic fundamentals in several metropolitan areas. Retailers are cautiously optimistic that income tax rebate checks, sales tax "holidays" and back-to-school sales will perk up summer results. Children's Apparel Retail Sales: May 2001 Square Footage May 00 to 01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 96,281 -9.6 6.8 Southeast Region 109,033 -7.0 3.1 Midwest Region 61,944 -11.6 0.4 Southwest and West
Regions 34,375 -4.1 1.7 Total 301,633 -8.7 3.9 May Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: The nationwide softness in retail sales was evident in Rouse centers in May. Comparable space tenant sales were down 2.0% for May, but the five-month result was 1.6% ahead of the same period a year ago. Most merchandise categories were down for the month, but the non-comparable category's 9.8% increase was a bright spot. This gain reflected successful re-leasing to more productive merchants. Regionally, only the Northeast managed to eke out a gain, 0.4% for May. The data is derived from the monthly performance of approximately 7,000 tenants in the retail centers across the United States operated by subsidiaries and affiliates of the company. Children's Apparel Retail Sales: April 2001 Square Footage April 00 to 01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 96,281 -1.7 10.3 Southeast Region 109,033 -8.6 5.0 Midwest Region 61,944 -8.1 2.8 Southwest and West
Regions 34,375 -22.3 2.8 Total 301,633 -7.3 6.4 April Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: An earlier Easter (spring sales season) this year, higher energy costs (particularly in the west) and new competition (at Collin Creek in Ft. Worth) all contributed to a slight decline in April sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers. For the month, comparable space sales declined nine-tenths of one percent, while the year-to-date increase was 2.2% for the four-month period. Properties along the East Coast (which represent approximately 65% of comparable space) fared best, with the Northeast Region ahead by 3.5% for the month and 5.7% for the first four months of 2001. Women's Apparel, the largest merchandise category, recorded strong 5.5% and 6.8% gains, respectively, for April and the year-to-date. The Home Furnishings and Electronics category (down 11.4% for April) was weak across all four regions. Children's Apparel Retail Sales: March 2001 Square Footage March 00 to 01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 105,537 8.7 15.5 Southeast Region 109,033 2.9 10.9 Midwest Region 61,944 -2.0 6.9 Southwest and West
Regions 38,785 6.2 15.0 Total 315,299 4.6 12.5 March Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Sales of merchants in the Rouse's retail centers were basically flat for March compared to the same month a year ago. The Northeast, Southeast and Midwest regions, representing almost 80% of the total comparable space, were all within 1% of breakeven for the month. The Southwest/West recorded a decline of 8.6% in March, but this was largely due to space in transition, particularly at Fashion Show in Las Vegas where a major expansion/relocation/construction program is underway. Total comparable space sales for all four regions were down 1.9%, but for the first quarter, 2001 year-to-date comparable space sales were ahead 1.4% over 2000. Children's apparel was the strongest performer for the month (+4.6%) and the quarter (+12.5%), while the largest merchandise category in terms of leasable space, women's apparel, was 7.2% ahead for the quarter. Jewelry was down 2.5% in March and 4.7% for the three months, indicating some possible caution on the part of consumers, perhaps related to concern over how the national economic scenario will play out. Children's Apparel Retail Sales: February 2001 Square Footage Feb. 00 to 01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 110,878 11.6 22.1 Southeast Region 109,033 8.1 17.4 Midwest Region 62,997 6.3 16.2 Southwest and West
Regions 38,785 12.9 21.9 Total 321,693 9.8 19.5 February Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Mirroring national trends of specialty retailers, merchants in the Company's regional shopping centers reported slight declines in February sales compared to the same month in 2000. For the month, total comparable space sales dipped 1.2%, but buoyed by the strong January results, year to date sales were 3.2% ahead of the first two months a year ago. Children's apparel (+9.8% for February), women's apparel (+4.5% for February) and shoes (+3.3% for February) bucked the negative trend, as most other merchandise categories recorded modest declines. Regionally, the Northeast and Southeast had slight gains for the month, while the Midwest had a slight decrease and the West/Southwest had a 6.8% drop. This decline was expected, as it is largely related to the expansions of Fashion Show in Las Vegas and Fashion Place in Salt Lake City. Children's Apparel Retail Sales: January 2001 Square Footage Jan. 00 to 01 YTD 00 to 01 Northeast Region 116,204 36.1 36.1 Southeast Region 109,033 27.6 27.6 Midwest Region 62,997 27.0 27.0 Southwest and West
Regions 39,403 30.7 30.7 Total 327,637 31.2 31.2 January Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Children's Apparel and Women's Apparel sales were very strong, helping merchants in the Company's retail centers post comparable space sales gains of 9% for January 2001. Children's Apparel, 31.2% ahead, and Women's Apparel, 25.9% ahead, were strong across the whole portfolio. Other merchandise categories with big increases over January 2000 included Other GAFO (books, sporting goods, etc.), up 11.3%, Shoes up 12.8% and Women's Accessories and Specialty Apparel, up 10.7%. The East Coast centers were particularly strong, with the Northeast up 14.6% and the Southeast up 11.5%. The Southwest/West trailed, at a 2.0% increase, but it was significantly affected by Fashion Show in Las Vegas, where a large amount of space has been taken out of commission to facilitate the center's extensive expansion and renovation. While January's results are very encouraging, they compare to a weak month a year ago, hence, should be viewed with caution when extrapolating an annual rate of growth for 2001. Rouse Malls By Region Used For Retail Barometer Calculations: Midwest Region: Beachwood Place, Cleveland, Ohio; Franklin Park, Toledo, Ohio; The Grand Avenue, Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Randhurst Center, Mt. Prospect, Illinois;Ridgedale Center, Minnetonka, Minnesota; Southland Center, Taylor, Michigan; The Mall in St. Matthews, St. Matthews, Kentucky. Southwest and West Region: The Shops at Arizona Center, Phoenix, Arizona; Collin Creek, Plano, Texas; Fashion Place Mall, Salt Lake City, Utah; The Fashion Show, Las Vegas, Nevada; Highland Mall, Austin, Texas; Hulen Mall, Fort Worth, Texas; North Star, San Antonio, Texas; Oakwood Center, New Orleans, Louisiana; Park Meadows, Denver, Colorado; Pioneer Place, Portland, Oregon; Riverwalk, New Orleans, Louisiana; Westlake Center, Seattle, Washington. Northeast Region: Bridgewater Commons, Bridgewater, New Jersey; Cherry Hill, Cherry Hill, New Jersey; Echelon Mall, Voorhees, New Jersey; Exton Square, Exton, Pennsylvania; Faneuil Hall Marketplace, Boston, Massachusetts; The Gallery at Market East, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Moorestown Mall, Burlington County, New Jersey; Paramus Park, Paramus, New Jersey; Plymouth Meeting, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; South Street Seaport, New York, New York; Staten Island Mall, Staten Island, New York; Willowbrook, Wayne, New Jersey; Woodbridge Center, Woodbridge, New Jersey. Southeast Region: Augusta Mall, Augusta, Georgia; Bayside, Miami, Florida; The Mall in Columbia, Columbia, Maryland; The Gallery at Harborplace, Baltimore, Maryland; Governor's Square, Tallahassee, Florida; Harborplace, Baltimore, Maryland; Jacksonville Landing, Jacksonville, Florida; Mondawmin, Baltimore, Maryland; Oviedo Marketplace, Orlando, Florida; Owings Mills, Baltimore County, Maryland Perimeter Mall, Atlanta, Georgia; Town and Country Center, Miami, Florida; Towson Town Center, Baltimore, Maryland; Village of Cross Keys, Baltimore, Maryland; White Marsh, Baltimore County, Maryland. |
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