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What is the Rouse Retail Barometer? The Rouse Company realizes that the key elements to success in the ownership and management of retail centers are the rate of growth and level of sales of the centers' merchants. Understanding these sales trends, particularly in children's apparel, and their implications requires timely and accurate information--which the company has developed and which is summarized below in the Rouse Retail Barometer. Square
Footage Dec. 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 123,818 -6.8 -1.8 Southeast Region 81,762 -11.4 -10.0 Midwest Region 94,015 -6.1 -8.6 Southwest and West
Regions 60,948 6.3 -5.1 Total 360,543 -5.4 -6.7 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. December Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Contrary to media reports of a disastrous holiday season, sales of specialty retailers and department stores generally ranged within five percentage points, plus or minus, of 2001's results. Merchants in comparable space in the Company's centers had a similar experience, up 0.2% for December and even for the full year. The reality is that, as a merchant, if you're in a center that's 94% occupied (the Company average) and your sales per square foot exceed $400 (also the Company average), that's undoubtedly a successful location that you wouldn't want to lose. It's also probably a location that could easily be re-leased in the event of a vacancy. So, while retailers would obviously prefer to have robustly growing sales, a flat holiday season isn't likely to generate significant closings in the Company's centers in 2003. Regionally, there was very little difference in December results - 1.2% ahead for the Midwest and Southwest/West regions and down 0.4% in the Northeast and 0.6% in the Southeast. Among merchandise categories, Women's Accessories and Specialty Apparel was strong in December (+5.2%) and for the year (+4.5%). Once again, the non-comparable category produced excellent results (12.4% ahead for December and 10.4% for the year) due to successful re-leasing to higher productivity merchants. Mall gift certificate sales were very strong in
December, but since no sales are recorded until they are
actually redeemed, there should be a boost to sales in
the first months of 2003.
Square
Footage Nov. 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 122,145 -12.7 -4.3 Southeast Region 81,762 -8.1 -9.8 Midwest Region 94,015 -11.2 -9 Southwest and West
Regions 60,948 -12.3 -7.1 Total 358,870 -11.5 -6.9 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. November Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Given that Thanksgiving fell on November 28, the "start" of the holiday shopping season was delayed, especially compared to 2002. Nonetheless, comparable space sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers declined by only .6%, compared to a .4% decline for the 11 months. Most merchandise categories reported sales results that were flat or down slightly, although jewelry and women's accessories/specialty were both ahead. And, the non-comparable category surged 9.4% for November reflecting re-leasing to more successful merchants. There was very little difference among the four regions for the month of November, although the Northeast, at plus 2.6% is the best performer for the year. Anecdotal evidence would seem to point to a December
that is probably going to be very similar to the results
thus far in 2002.
Square
Footage Sept. 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 119,702 -13.9 -4.8 Southeast Region 82,921 -22.4 -10.7 Midwest Region 94,015 -13.2 -9.8 Southwest and West
Regions 60,948 0.5 -7.1 Total 357,586 -13.5 -7.6 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. September Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Comparable space September sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers increased by 1.3% compared to September 2001, and for the nine months of this year trail the same period a year ago by 0.8%. The Northeast region leads the way, with sales up 3.4% for September and 2.4% for the year, with the other three regions all virtually flat for September and down slightly for the nine months. Women's accessories and specialty apparel and home furnishings/electronics were the strong merchandise categories for September, with children's apparel the weakest performer. The non-comparable category also provided a boost, up 10.0% in September and 7.4% year to date, as a result of successful re-leasing to more productive merchants. Initial reports indicate that cold weather in much of
the country during October may have stimulated apparel
purchases.
Square
Footage Aug. 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 123,818 -2.7 -2.7 Southeast Region 92,895 -11.6 -7.1 Midwest Region 94,015 -7.6 -9.2 Southwest and West
Regions 60,948 -2.7 -8.0 Total 371,676 -5.7 -6.1 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. August Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Merchants' sales for August of 2002 in the Company's retail properties generally mirrored trends established earlier this year. Comparable space sales volume was down 0.7% for the month, compared to down 1.0% for the eight months. Among merchandise categories, Jewelry and Women's Accessories/Specialty Apparel were ahead for August and the eight-month period, while most of the other categories recorded minor declines. The non-comparable space category continued to outperform significantly, up 10.9% for August and 7.5% year-to-date - largely the result of leasing to successful retailers. While all indications are that consumers will be
cautious during these times of economic and political
uncertainty, we would expect that sales for the balance
of the year will probably continue these trends.
Square
Footage July 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 123,818 -2.0 -3.0 Southeast Region 92,895 -2.3 -6.4 Midwest Region 94,015 -6.0 -9.5 Southwest and West
Regions 60,948 -3.1 -9.0 Total 371,676 -3.4 -6.2 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. July Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: Reflecting national trends for specialty retailers, July comparable space sales for merchants in the Company's retail centers were down 1.4%, bringing the year to date decline for seven months to 1.3% compared to 2001's same period. With the exception of non-comparable tenants (who were ahead by 14.9% for the month as a result of leasing to more successful merchants) and Women's Accessories and Specialty Apparel (up 4.3% for July), all other merchandise categories recorded declines. The Northeast region, the Company's largest area of
concentration, continued to outperform the rest of the
country, ahead by 2.7% for July and 2.2% for the seven
months. For July, the Southeast declined 2.2%, the
Midwest 2.8% and the Southwest/West 4.4%.
Square
Footage June 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 123,818 0.7 -3.1 Southeast Region 92,895 -2.4 -6.9 Midwest Region 94,015 -3.8 -10 Southwest and West
Regions 60,948 -2.7 -10.1 Total 371,676 -1.5 -6.6 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. June Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: June sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers increased by 1.4% for comparable space, making the first half decline 1.3%. Given the economic turmoil in the country so far in 2002, this clearly demonstrates the resilience of high quality regional shopping centers. The Shoes and Women's Apparel and Specialty Merchandise categories were strong performers, while Men's Apparel, Family Apparel and Children's Apparel were all weak. The non-comparable category recorded a solid 10.5% gain as a result of leasing of space to stronger merchants. The Northeast Region, the Company's largest, produced a healthy 4.2% gain for June, followed by the Southeast up 1.7%, the Midwest off by a scant 0.1%, and the Southwest/West trailing at minus 1.6%. Retailers seem optimistic about the upcoming
back-to-school and holiday sales seasons, buoyed by the
anticipation of comparisons to 2001's lackluster second
half.
Square
Footage May 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 127,123 0.8 -4.2 Southeast Region 95,195 -3.3 -7.6 Midwest Region 92,845 -13.3 -11.5 Southwest and West
Regions 60,948 -9.8 -11.5 Total 376,111 -5.0 -7.7 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. May Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: After April's weak showing due to the earlier Easter/Spring sales calendar this year, May sales of merchants in the Company's retail centers recovered to break even levels, 0.1% ahead for the month, while the decline for the five month period was reduced to 1.9%. Women's Accessories and Specialty Apparel was again the top performing merchandise category, and Home Furnishings and Electronics had a strong month. Family Apparel and Children's Apparel continued to show weakness. Once again the Northeast was the top region, up 4.0% for the month and 1.8% for the year. The Southwest/West region continued to trail, down 4.2% in May and 5.5% year to date. Given the overwhelming negative economic news, retail
sales continue to be very resilient, and as a result,
tenant bankruptcies are not substantial and demand for
space, especially in the better properties, continues to
be strong.
Square
Footage April 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 127,123 -15.7 -5.1 Southeast Region 95,195 -22.2 -8.3 Midwest Region 94,015 -12.0 -10.8 Southwest and West
Regions 60,948 -20.7 -11.7 Total 377,281 -16.8 -8.1 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. April Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: As anticipated, April sales of retailers in the Company's centers were down (by 4.2% for the month), reflecting 2002's earlier Easter/Spring sales season. For the year to date, comparable space sales are running 2.4% behind the first four months of 2001. The Jewelry and Women's Accessories and Specialty Apparel categories were bright spots, increasing by 3.9% and 3.8%, respectively. The Family apparel, Children's Apparel and Shoes categories all had double-digit declines for the month. Non-comparable space had a 5.3% increase for the month, the result of re-leasing to more productive merchants. Regionally, the Northeast and Midwest performed relatively better, while the Southeast and Southwest/West regions trailed. Prospects for the second half of the year appear somewhat better, if for no other reason than that the comparisons will be against weak periods in 2001. Square
Footage March 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 127,123 5.8 -1.5 Southeast Region 95,195 7.2 -3.5 Midwest Region 62,997 -8.0 -13.4 Southwest and West
Regions 49,989 -3.6 -13.3 Total 335,304 2.3 -5.7 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. March Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: This year's earlier Easter and Spring sales seasons provided a boost for merchants in the Company's retail centers in March. Overall, comparable space sales volumes increased by 3% for the month, helping offset weakness earlier in 2002. For the first quarter of the year, sales were off by 1.7%. The east coast regions, which represent 64% of the Company's retail space, fared significantly better, as comparable space sales increased for March by 8.7% for the Northeast and by 7.4% for the Southeast. Apparel sales were also generally strong, except for the family apparel category which was depressed by the lackluster performance of Gap units. The non-comparable category did well, except in the Midwest where vacancies at Randhurst (a center due for disposition later this year) held down results. Bankruptcies of the Company's centers' tenants are
down from the past couple of years, and although
merchants are very cautious about opening new units,
shopping centers that produce high sales volumes and that
have high occupancies continue to enjoy strong demand
from prospective new tenants.
Square
Footage February 01 to
02 YTD 01 to
02 Northeast Region 129,130 1.6 -6.8 Southeast Region 98,175 -4.0 -9.7 Midwest Region 62,997 -12.2 -17.8 Southwest and West
Regions 50,744 -17.0 -21.1 Total 341,046 -4.7 -11.5 For the 2001 Rouse Retail Barometer Click Here. February Outlook for All Sales Categories at Rouse Centers: After January's weakness, sales of specialty stores in the Company's retail centers bounced back in February. Comparable space sales were virtually flat (-.4%) compared to the same month a year ago. For the first two months of 2002, comparable space sales were down 4.8% from 2002's levels. The two Atlantic coast regions definitely fared the best with the Northeast ahead by 4.2% and the Southeast up .1%. The smaller Midwest and Southwest/West regions reported declines of 5.3% and 4.7%, respectively, for the month. While other apparel categories recovered, children's apparel and family/specialty apparel were relatively soft. The Northeast region's non-comparable category got a big boost from new leasing, particularly at Willowbrook and Cherry Hill. While the overall economy seems to be improving consumers still appear to have been cautious in January and February. Rouse Malls By Region Used For Retail Barometer Calculations: Midwest Region: Beachwood Place, Cleveland, Ohio; Franklin Park, Toledo, Ohio; The Grand Avenue, Milwaukee, Wisconsin; Randhurst Center, Mt. Prospect, Illinois;Ridgedale Center, Minnetonka, Minnesota; Southland Center, Taylor, Michigan; The Mall in St. Matthews, St. Matthews, Kentucky. Southwest and West Region: The Shops at Arizona Center, Phoenix, Arizona; Collin Creek, Plano, Texas; Fashion Place Mall, Salt Lake City, Utah; The Fashion Show, Las Vegas, Nevada; Highland Mall, Austin, Texas; Hulen Mall, Fort Worth, Texas; North Star, San Antonio, Texas; Oakwood Center, New Orleans, Louisiana; Park Meadows, Denver, Colorado; Pioneer Place, Portland, Oregon; Riverwalk, New Orleans, Louisiana; Westlake Center, Seattle, Washington. Northeast Region: Bridgewater Commons, Bridgewater, New Jersey; Cherry Hill, Cherry Hill, New Jersey; Echelon Mall, Voorhees, New Jersey; Exton Square, Exton, Pennsylvania; Faneuil Hall Marketplace, Boston, Massachusetts; The Gallery at Market East, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Moorestown Mall, Burlington County, New Jersey; Paramus Park, Paramus, New Jersey; Plymouth Meeting, Montgomery County, Pennsylvania; South Street Seaport, New York, New York; Staten Island Mall, Staten Island, New York; Willowbrook, Wayne, New Jersey; Woodbridge Center, Woodbridge, New Jersey. Southeast Region: Augusta Mall, Augusta, Georgia; Bayside, Miami, Florida; The Mall in Columbia, Columbia, Maryland; The Gallery at Harborplace, Baltimore, Maryland; Governor's Square, Tallahassee, Florida; Harborplace, Baltimore, Maryland; Jacksonville Landing, Jacksonville, Florida; Mondawmin, Baltimore, Maryland; Oviedo Marketplace, Orlando, Florida; Owings Mills, Baltimore County, Maryland Perimeter Mall, Atlanta, Georgia; Town and Country Center, Miami, Florida; Towson Town Center, Baltimore, Maryland; Village of Cross Keys, Baltimore, Maryland; White Marsh, Baltimore County, Maryland. |
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